Navigating the Current Economy: A Reflective Check-In
There’s something uncomfortably humbling about pausing to write about the economy because it feels so big, so impersonal, and yet so intimately relevant to each of us. As I lean into this moment, I want to speak plainly, without spin: the economic landscape in the U.S. and globally is full of contradictions, muted optimism alongside real caution, and as someone helping leaders, teams, and businesses through change, I believe we owe ourselves the honestly.
United States: Steady, but not booming
Let’s begin at home. The U.S. economy is holding its ground, but “holding” doesn’t mean “racing ahead.”
According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8% nationally in Q2 2025, which signals resilience.
Personal income rose by about 5.5% in the same period.
On the other hand, growth forecasts are modest: some estimates suggest ~2% growth this year.
Meanwhile, export orders, manufacturing output and trade policy uncertainty are weighing. For example, manufacturing in the U.S. is seeing mixed signals due to tariff pressures and weaker global demand.
What does all this mean, especially for a startup founder or a consultant navigating this space?
There’s room for optimism: consumers are spending, incomes are rising, the economy hasn’t collapsed.
There’s also room for caution: growth isn’t explosive, cost pressures and policy drag loom, and the margin for error is narrower.
For leaders: investments still matter, especially in people, process and purpose. But don’t bank on runaway growth; plan for resilience.
Global View: Growth is slow, uncertainty is high
Turning your gaze outward, the global economy presents a more subdued picture, and this matters, even if you’re focused on U.S. business.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth will slow to about 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
Key headwinds: trade tensions, weaker manufacturing in major economics (for example, China’s factory activity has contracted for several months) and tighter financing conditions.
On the flip side, there are interesting bright spots: some emerging markets are holding up better, and tech/AI investment continues to bolster pockets of growth.
For entrepreneurs and consultants serving clients with global exposure - or even those who rely on global supply chains - these global dynamics matter:
Risk of over-stretch: if you’re already stretched, global headwinds make buffer capacity more important.
Opportunity in divergence: when some geographies slow, others may surge; spotting the right trends matters.
Connected systems: even if your business is U.S.-centric, global supply chains, material costs, talent flows, and client behavior are influenced by the global economy.
The Implications for Purpose-Driven Business
Given the scenario - steady but not spectacular in the U.S., slower globally - what does this mean if you’re building a business, or coaching/consulting one, with real purpose?
Focus on value over volume. When growth is modest, differentiation wins. Always articulate the unique value you bring.
Invest in resilience. In your new business venture, building in contingencies - lower initial overhead, diversified clients, flexible delivery models - helps honor the reality of a slower growth environment.
Be transparent and human. In uncertain times, audience and clients respond to honestly. It’s okay to say: “Yes, the economy has tailwinds and headwinds; here’s how we’re navigating it together.”
Leverage the upside in tech/AI. Many economies are seeing tech-driven investment - so coaching, consulting, and project leadership services that intersect with new tools, digital transformation, AI readiness are positioned well.
Stay grounded in people. With macro uncertainty, the human side becomes a competitive advantage.
My View: A Balanced Optimism, Rooted in Reality
I’m an optimist by nature. I believe in people, purpose, and projects - the three pillars I keep coming back to. But optimism without grounding becomes blind faith. So here’s my honest view:
Yes, there is opportunity ahead. If you’ve built or are building a business that has strong fundamentals, a clear value proposition, and lean operations, you are well positioned.
Yes, there is risk. The days of blazing-fast growth may be fewer. Macro policy, inflation, trade shifts, and global interdependencies mean you’ll need to be nimble.
And yes, the best time to show up is now. When many will pause, do less, or play safe, this is when purpose-driven service professionals can stand out. Being thoughtful, consistent, and values-aligned creates trust - not just when times are great, but especially when times are “just okay.”
What I’m Doing (And What You Might Consider)
Here’s what I’m committed to in this environment, and perhaps helpful prompts for you to consider too:
I’m focusing my messaging on helping businesses navigate change - not just “grow fast,” but “grow well.”
I’m building my network and pipeline constantly, which means steady client outreach, consistent content, and framing my offering suite in ways that speak to conservative budgets with a purposeful ask.
I’m investing in flexible delivery models. For example, shorter intensives, modular formats, hybrid virtual/in-person sessions, so I can scale or contract with client demand.
I’m staying alert to global signals because while local markets matter most for me, supply-chain shifts, talent flows, regulation changes do ripple through.
For you: consider audit of your business or career path. Ask: What if growth is 2% this year? What if slower than that? How will I adjust? Build in contingency, but also motion.
Final Thoughts
We’re living in a time where the economy is neither booming nor collapsing - it’s quietly sturdy, a little weary, waiting. That in itself offers a gift: a chance to build with intention, to stand for something real, and to serve others meaningfully rather than chasing arbitrary growth.
If you’re a startup founder, a solopreneur, a team leader, or a consultant, my invitation is simple:
Stay grounded in the facts (which are modest).
Stay large in your vision (which is bold).
Stay agile in your execution (which means flexible).
Stay human in your interactions (which means honest).
Economics may not feel intimate. It may feel distant, abstract. But your business, your team, your story - they’re all shaped by it. And the best way to live in it is with awareness, purpose, and a bit of courage.
Here’s to building something meaningful in this moment.
